Mythos and the Coming End of European Digital Sovereignty

European AI Governance vs. Capability Deficit: Europe aims to be a leader in AI governance through regulations like the AI Act, but struggles with the gap between rule-making and technological production.
US Impact on European AI: A US restriction on Anthropic’s advanced AI models illustrates how geopolitical considerations can control access to frontier AI, posing a threat to Europe’s technological sovereignty.
Material Bottlenecks in AI Development: Europe’s AI leadership is hindered by a lack of foundational conditions such as cheap and reliable energy, infrastructure, and talent, which are essential for rapid AI development.
Projected Future Scenario: A scenario predicts that by 2031, Europe may become a ‘digital colony’ of the US or China, dependent on their advanced AI systems, lacking the capability to shape its own technological future.
Strategies for European Success in AI: To succeed in AI, Europe needs to focus on building its own capabilities, ensuring resilience against external control, and addressing material bottlenecks to foster internal AI growth.
Political Will and Execution: Success hinges on political will to implement necessary changes, such as investing in infrastructure, facilitating rapid grid connections, and reducing regulatory burdens to attract talent and capital.