Last nuclear weapons limits expired – pushing world toward new arms race

The New START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, removing the last agreed limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.
The New START treaty had limitations on the number of strategic nuclear weapons, missiles, and bombers, required inspections, and banned interference with satellite monitoring.
The expiration of New START could lead to a potentially dangerous three-way nuclear arms competition between the U.S., China, and Russia.
Nuclear agreements offer benefits in four key areas: predictability, transparency, reduced first-strike incentives, and improved relations.
The absence of nuclear restraints has unraveled decades of international nuclear stability and raises concerns about increased nuclear conflict risks.
President Trump has not initiated negotiations on follow-on accords and has shown pressure to build up U.S. nuclear forces.
Despite common national interests in avoiding unrestrained nuclear races, reaching a new multilateral accord is challenging due to political polarization and technological complexities.
A strategic pause proposed by Putin to halt nuclear buildups while exploring new steps could offer time for negotiations and reduce the risks of an arms race.