The AI Divide | Foreign Affairs

The future of artificial intelligence (AI) is currently dominated by the United States and China, which control 70% of the world’s top AI researchers, 90% of global computing power, and attract the majority of AI investments.
The AI middle powers (like France, India, and the UK) face significant challenges due to their dependence on AI capabilities from the US and China, including limited leverage in shaping AI development and being exposed to its disruptive effects.
While middle powers can choose different paths to gain access to frontier AI capabilities, such as bandwagoning with the dominant powers, hedging to extract favorable terms from both sides, or pursuing technological sovereignty, each strategy has significant risks.
Middle powers must identify economic and strategic niches to remain relevant in the growing AI economy, particularly in upstream inputs, downstream bottlenecks, or automation-resistant sectors.
The US should support bandwagoning while promoting technological exports to maximize its leverage, but must also balance this with the goals of AI middle powers to avoid deep dependencies and potential disruptions.
If well-managed, middle powers can secure enduring access to AI capabilities while finding new positions of leverage and relevance, contributing to a geopolitically balanced AI future. Otherwise, they face a significant risk of marginalization in an AI-dominated global economy.