Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives

AI Adoption and Productivity Impact: The survey of nearly 750 corporate executives reveals widespread, though heterogeneous, AI adoption, with more than half of firms already investing in AI. The results show positive labor productivity gains which vary across sectors and are expected to strengthen in 2026, especially in high-skill services and finance.
Productivity Paradox: While perceived productivity gains from AI are larger than actual measured gains, these improvements stem largely from revenue-based total factor productivity linked to innovation and increased demand.
Minimal Near-term Job Loss: The survey does not show significant near-term employment declines directly due to AI. However, larger firms anticipate some workforce reductions due to AI, whereas smaller firms expect modest employment gains.
Compositional Shift in Labor: The study finds evidence of labor reallocation both within and across firms, with routine clerical roles declining and an increased demand for skilled technical roles driven by AI implementation.
Ranking of Affected Job Functions: The authors developed an index to rank job functions most negatively impacted by AI. This helps understand the compositional shifts resulting from AI integration in corporate sectors.