Millions of farmers in Africa’s Great Lakes region face rising temperatures. Study predicts how crop disease and pests could spread

Climate change and socio-political tensions make farming in the Great Lakes region of Africa challenging, leading to low agricultural productivity and high food insecurity.
Farmers face difficulties due to lack of high-quality seeds, extreme weather conditions including floods, droughts and heat waves, and conflicts over resources.
Plant pathologists used machine learning to study how 27 crop pathogens and pests might spread with increased temperatures in Burundi and Rwanda.
The research suggests that hotter temperatures will likely expand the distribution and alter the dynamics of crop pathogens and pests, affecting food security for smallholder farmers.
The modelling showed that parts of Rwanda and Burundi could serve as pathways for pathogens and pests to spread, especially as high altitudes in the region warm.
Of the 27 pathogens and pests studied, 44% could become more common at higher altitudes, while 17% may become less common due to increasingly hot conditions.
Farmers and stakeholders should adopt climate-smart agriculture and implement better crop management practices to adapt to changing climate conditions and protect crop health.
The study highlights the need for continuous pest and disease surveillance, forecasting, and adaptive strategies to manage the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the region.

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